Let's Talk About Sex (the gender gap, that is)

In the short time since Michigan's gubernatorial primaries, there has not been a great amount of time to "slice and dice" the electorate with regard to detailed polling data.

I certainly hope some of this research finds its way into the media soon, since there is a particular topic of voter behavior I'm especially interested in: the often talked about gender gap.

The gender gap was first discovered by demographers around 1980. In virtually every presidential election since then (and in a great many state races, with some variance from region to region) female voters have shown a consistent tendency to lean more Democratic and liberal in their voting than their male counterparts; after taking other relevant factors (race, income, etc.) into account. Traditionally, Michigan has been no exception.

Several theories have been advanced as the to the underlying cause of the gender gap. One suggest that as the economic vitality of America's suburbs became more ensconced, female voters could afford the luxury of turning their attention to concerns that directly impacted their identities as women: abortion rights, pay equity etc., all issues associated with Democrats. For a time after 9/11, some studies appeared to show movement back to Republicans, as concerns over homeland security became for paramount. "From soccer moms to security moms," became a popular phrase. This shift, however, appears to have been only temporary.

At this point, Michigan's tattered economy and high level of anxiety regarding the future seems to have worked in the Rick Snyder and the Republicans' favor.

But, beware! Aside from it being early in the campaign season, hidden surprises can fly up from under the radar at any time and upset the apple cart. Let's not forget about the Tea Party, the gender gap, and any other potential surprises.