As Oakland Goes, So Goes the State?

In recent decades, much has been made of Macomb County being a "bellwether" of state and national political trends. But in my observation this title seems to be misplaced. Macomb County seems to be a former Democratic area that merely switched to the GOP.

Oakland County is far more deserving of the title. Once thought as a bastion of Republicanism, the face of the electorate in Michigan's second largest county has most definitely changed in recent decades. Since the early nineties, Oakland County has evolved into having a more diverse, bipartisan electorate. More significantly, the county has voted with the winner in three of the last four presidential elections (recognizing Al Gore in 2000, the winner of the popular vote). In the Gubernatorial races, Oakland voted for Jennifer Granholm in both 2002 and 2006.

If this trend continues its level of accuracy, 2010 may not be too kind to the Democrats. According to the latest data from Rasmussen, a hypothetical November match up between Democrat Andy Dillon and Republican Mike Cox shows Cox at two points ahead in Oakland County; a very slender lead, but in keeping with the overall trend of recent weeks. When Dillon is stacked against Rep. Peter Hokestra, the Republicans wins, by five points. Clearly the Democrats have a great deal of catching up to do, in both Oakland and the state at large.

As an interesting aside, a general election contest between Dillon and Cox would be an unusual type of high school reunion for the two gentlemen. Both are members of the Detroit Catholic Central class of 1980.