Thoughts on the Fall Elections

Watching both the local and national news, it's easy to get the impression that the Democrats are going to take a real beating in the upcoming midterm election.  Helped in no small part to the occasionally shrill Tea Party movement, the perceived level of dissatisfaction would seem to predict another 1994, when the Republicans retook control of the House.

Predictions of the pollsters, however, aren't so clear.  According to Gallup, midterm election results are driven by two factors: the approval rating of the sitting president and, although to a slightly lesser degree, the overall approval rating of Congress.  In recent midterms, a president trending at a 50% or better experiences relatively small losses.  For example, in 1990 George H.W. Bush enjoyed an approval of 58 % and lost only eight House seat.  By contrast, a rating below the 50% threshold usually spells trouble.  In 2006, an increasingly unpopular George W. Bush, with a rate of only 38% experienced a 30 seat loss.

President Obama's current approval stands right that 50% mark. Accurately predicting the events of the next five months is, of course, impossible but an economy showing steady, if painfully slow, improvement and relatively quiet international stage may enable the Democrats to emerge with most of their gains from 2008 intact.